WASHINGTON, DC – The National Alliance of Forest Owners (NAFO) and Forisk Consulting announced the availability of a practical guide to tracking and predicting capacity in domestic, wood-consuming bioenergy markets.
Forisk Consulting, a leader in economic forecasting in the forest products industry, developed a practical, data-driven screening methodology examining siting, financing, permitting, sourcing of raw materials, and other factors, that shows that the ramp-up of renewable energy production will likely be gradual.
David P. Tenny, President and CEO of NAFO, said, “As policy makers work to develop responsible biomass energy policy, they rely on realistic projections of demand in order to tailor policy to real world conditions. Forisk’s screening methodology gives us a more accurate approach to predicting the build out of biomass energy capacity from the many projects that have been announced. With this tool, policy makers can craft better public policy, and the public can have a more realistic view of the future.”
Dr. Brooks Mendell, President and Founder of Forisk Consulting, explained, “Locating, financing, constructing and operating these projects goes beyond drafting a pro forma and wishing on a star. The reality is complicated and difficult. We developed this methodology to help forest owners assess likely demand from new wood bioenergy markets in the future. Through our partnership with NAFO, this white paper introduces the tool to policy makers.”
The methodology for screening wood-consuming projects focuses on two criteria that emphasize the practical realities of developing bioenergy markets: technology and status:
- Technology: Projects that employ currently viable technology pass the technology screen. These include pelletizing technology and wood-to-electricity projects. Cellulosic ethanol from wood feedstock, as a developing technology, is not yet considered operational using this tool.
- Status: Projects that are operational, under construction, or received or secured two or more necessary elements for advancing towards operations pass the status screen.
Forisk publishes a monthly summary projecting demand from wood-consuming bioenergy facilities. As of May 2010, 135 announced or operating wood-consuming bioenergy projects in the U.S. South represent 55.9 million tons per year of announced capacity. Using the Forisk screening methodology, approximately 20.3 million tons per year of capacity, or 36% of the announced capacity, is predicted to be in operation by 2020. In Summer 2010, Forisk’s periodic state-specific updates will expand beyond the U.S. South to cover the continental U.S.
The whitepaper and the most recent projection are available at www.nafoalliance.org/bioenergy-tracking-guide/.
This work compliments other recent studies on biomass energy, including supply-side projects; ecological sustainability; and, carbon neutrality. All of this research is available at www.nafoalliance.org/studies.
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NAFO is an organization of private forest owners committed to advancing federal policies that promote the economic and environmental values of privately-owned forests at the national level. NAFO membership encompasses more than 75 million acres of private forestland in 47 states. View NAFO’s interactive map to see the economic impact of America’s working forests.
Forisk Consulting specializes in analyzing the supply and demand characteristics of local wood and timber markets, and the financial performance of timberland investment vehicles. Forisk produces analytical products and provides research and educational services to operating, finance and strategy executives and analysts making decisions associated with timber REITs, timberlands, and wood-using bioenergy and manufacturing facilities.
Tags: biomass
